After months of uncertainty, Nvidia is edging closer to restarting high-end AI chip sales to China, but government approval remains a hurdle.
According to a report from Reuters, the US chipmaking giant has told its Chinese clients it aims to ship its powerful H200 AI chips before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February.
The company reportedly plans to use its existing stock to fulfill these initial orders, with total shipments estimated at 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules. In more concrete terms, that translates to roughly 40,000 to 80,000 individual H200 chips.
The plans don’t stop there. Reuters’ sources also indicated that Nvidia has told clients it intends to add new production capacity specifically for these chips, with orders for that future supply opening in the second quarter of 2026.
Waiting for the green light from Beijing
However, the plan is far from guaranteed. Chinese regulators have not yet approved any purchases of the H200 chips. As one source told Reuters, “The whole plan is contingent on government approval. Nothing is certain until we get the official go-ahead.”
There is tension within China regarding these imports. While tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance are eager to get their hands on the H200, the government is worried that flooding the market with top-tier American tech could hurt local chipmakers who are trying to catch up.
Reuters reports that officials held emergency meetings earlier this month to debate the issue. One idea currently under consideration is a bundling rule that would require companies buying Nvidia’s chips to also purchase a specific amount of domestically produced Chinese chips.
A turn in trade policy
This potential shipment represents a US policy reversal. Under the Biden administration, chips of this caliber were banned from export to China due to national security fears. However, President Donald Trump recently announced that Washington would permit these sales, provided a 25% fee is paid. Following this pledge, the Trump administration has launched a review to process license applications for the H200.
For Chinese tech companies, the stakes are high. Currently, they often rely on the H20, a downgraded chip Nvidia created specifically to comply with previous US sanctions. The H200 is a significant upgrade, offering roughly six times the performance of the H20.
Even though Nvidia is moving toward its newer Blackwell and Rubin lines, the H200 remains a workhorse in the AI industry, making it a highly coveted prize for Chinese firms looking to train complex AI models.
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