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Liverpool host Qarabag at Anfield on Wednesday night with their Champions League league-phase position still to be decided.
Arne Slot’s side head into the final round sitting fourth in the table on 15 points, knowing a win guarantees a top-eight finish and direct qualification for the last 16.
A draw may yet be enough, but a defeat would leave Liverpool vulnerable to being overtaken, with several sides still in range heading into the final matchday.
Europe has been a steadier platform than domestic competition this season. Liverpool have won five of their seven league-phase matches, despite suffering a rare home setback earlier in the campaign.
With Ibrahima Konate and Joe Gomez unavailable, Liverpool are expected to use Wataru Endo alongside Virgil van Dijk at centre-back.
Qarabag arrive with qualification still within reach. Ten points from seven matches has kept them in contention, including a 3-2 win over Eintracht Frankfurt last time out.
The result lifted Qarabag onto 10 points and keeps them in contention for the knockout rounds heading into the final matchday.
How to watch Liverpool v Qarabag
Liverpool vs Qarabag kicks off at 20:00 (UK) on Wednesday, January 28, at Anfield. The match will be shown live on TNT Sports.
Liverpool team news
Liverpool will again be short in central defence, with Ibrahima Konate and Joe Gomez both unavailable for the visit of Qarabag.
Konate has remained absent following a family bereavement, while Gomez was forced off at the weekend after colliding with Alisson, ruling him out of this final group fixture.
Those absences are expected to see Wataru Endo deputise at centre-back alongside Virgil van Dijk, with Slot likely to keep changes elsewhere to a minimum given the qualification stakes.
Mohamed Salah is set to start after returning to the squad, while Hugo Ekitike is expected to come back into the XI following a bench role in the league.
Curtis Jones is also pushing for a midfield start as Liverpool look to control the game through possession and structure.
Liverpool expected lineup
(4-2-3-1) Alisson; Frimpong, Endo, Van Dijk, Robertson; Jones, Nyoni; Gakpo, Mac Allister, Ngumoha; Ekitike
Qarabag team news
Qarabag arrive close to full strength and are expected to name a similar side to the one that beat Eintracht Frankfurt last time out.
Kady Borges remains sidelined, while Ramil Sheydayev is ineligible, but there are no new injury concerns for the visitors.
Camilo Duran is set to lead the line after scoring twice against Frankfurt, supported by Abdellah Zoubir and Joni Montiel operating between the lines.
Qurban Qurbanov is unlikely to rotate heavily, with qualification still mathematically possible heading into the final round.
Qarabag expected lineup
(4-2-3-1) Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Jankovic, Bicalho; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Duran
Liverpool v Qarabag stats
– This will be the first European meeting between Liverpool and Qarabag.
– Qarabag’s only previous Champions League games against English opposition came against Chelsea, avoiding defeat once in three meetings.
– The Azerbaijani side have lost all four of their away matches against English clubs in European competition, conceding 13 goals across those games.
– Qarabag’s only Champions League away trip to England ended in a 6-0 defeat at Chelsea in 2017.
– Liverpool have won 13 of their last 14 Champions League league-phase matches at Anfield.
– A win on Wednesday would guarantee Liverpool a top-eight finish and direct qualification for the last 16.
– Since Arne Slot took charge in 2024, Liverpool have won 13 of their 17 Champions League matches, the highest win rate of any side in that period.
Liverpool v Qarabağ predictions
Liverpool should control large parts of this game, particularly if they establish an early lead and avoid being drawn into a stretched contest.
Qarabag have shown enough in this league phase to suggest they can contribute to an entertaining contest at Anfield.
They arrive on the back of a 3-2 win over Eintracht Frankfurt and have scored in five of their seven Champions League matches.
At the same time, Liverpool’s defensive absences and recent concessions mean a clean sheet is not guaranteed, even if the Reds are likely to dominate territory and chances.
That combination makes a Liverpool win and both teams to score at 11/8 worth a punt. It covers Liverpool’s need for three points while accounting for Qarabağ’s ability to stay competitive.
There is also value in Alexis Mac Allister to score or assist at 4/5.
He has produced 3.4 expected goals this season. Still, he has only scored once, while remaining involved in Liverpool’s attacking output, creating 15 chances in the Premier League and four more in the Champions League.
