Apple’s famed annual iPhone launch spectacle might be changing in a major way. Reports and industry forecasts suggest the Cupertino giant is planning a significant shift for its 2026 releases, which could mean a smaller lineup in the fall and a delayed arrival for the standard iPhone 18 model.
The biggest news from the reports is that the base iPhone 18 model — the standard version, typically released in September — is now expected to arrive much later. Instead of launching alongside the Pro models in the fall of 2026, the standard iPhone 18 is said to be pushed back to early 2027.
The International Data Corporation (IDC) has seemingly corroborated this strategic change in its latest forecast on the worldwide smartphone market. The research firm noted that Apple’s “strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is forecast to pull-down iOS shipments by 4.2% next year.”
Fewer flagships next fall
If the base model is shifted out of the traditional fall slot, the iPhone lineup launching next fall could be the smallest since 2019. That year, Apple introduced only three flagship models: the iPhone 11, 11 Pro, and 11 Pro Max.
Current expectations for the fall 2026 release now center on only three high-end devices, including iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and iPhone Fold/Ultra — Apple’s rumored first foldable phone. This departure from the four-model-per-fall standard is part of a broader plan to overhaul the company’s product release strategy.
Mark Gurman, in his November Bloomberg’s Power On Newsletter, wrote that the company aims to “move away from the annual fall spectacle” to better manage its revenue, reduce strain on engineering and marketing teams, and create multiple opportunities each year to counter competitor releases. He expects this new pattern to continue for years, with Apple launching five to six new models annually, spread across the year.
Strong sales now, but market headwinds loom
The news of a smaller 2026 lineup comes as Apple enjoys a strong period of growth. IDC forecasts a record year for Apple in 2025, with shipments expected to surpass 247 million units thanks to the success of its iPhone 17 series.
Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, stated that “Apple is set to have a record year in 2025 with shipments forecast to cross 247 million units, thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series.”
However, the broader smartphone market faces challenges. While IDC expects worldwide smartphone shipments to grow by 1.5% in 2025, 2026 is forecast to see a “soft decline” of 0.9%. This is due to a combination of product cycle adjustments, such as Apple’s change, and an ongoing global shortage of memory components.
This shortage is predicted to drive up the Average Selling Price (ASP) of smartphones to $465 in 2026, pushing the overall market value to a record high of almost $579 billion.
“As memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
Ultimately, users looking for a budget-friendly new iPhone in the fall of 2026 might need to settle for an existing model, like the iPhone 17, or wait for the base iPhone 18 to arrive in the spring of 2027.
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