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Newcastle return to Champions League action on Wednesday night with PSV visiting St James’ Park, knowing a win would put them in a strong position to secure a place in the knockout stages.
The Magpies sit 13th in the league phase on 10 points, while PSV arrive two points back in 21st, leaving both sides with little margin for error heading into the final round.
Eddie Howe’s side remain in the mix for a top-eight finish but have been held back by inconsistency, drawing four of their last six matches across all competitions.
PSV’s position is more precarious. Defeat would leave their hopes of finishing inside the top 24 hanging by a thread, while a win would pull them level with Newcastle ahead of the final matchday.
With both sides still chasing qualification rather than protecting it, the stakes are clear before kick-off.
How to watch Newcastle v PSV
Newcastle vs PSV kicks off at 20:00 (UK) on Wednesday at St James’ Park. The match will be shown live on TNT Sports 2, with streaming available via discovery+.
Newcastle team news
Newcastle’s defensive options remain stretched.
Dan Burn, Emil Krafth, Fabian Schär, Tino Livramento, Jamaal Lascelles, Jacob Murphy and William Osula are all expected to miss out through injury.
That leaves Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw likely to continue together at centre-back, with Lewis Hall at left-back and Lewis Miley a possible option on the right.
In midfield, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton are expected to start, while Anthony Elanga and Yoane Wissa are pushing for attacking roles after the goalless draw with Wolves.
Newcastle expected lineup
(4-3-3) Pope; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Guimarães, Tonali, Joelinton; Elanga, Wissa, Barnes
PSV team news
PSV also arrive with a lengthy injury list.
Ricardo Pepi, Sergiño Dest, Ruben van Bommel, Alassane Plea, Myron Boadu and Nick Olij are all unavailable, limiting Peter Bosz’s attacking rotation.
Ivan Perišić and Paul Wanner are expected to retain their places after scoring in PSV’s most recent outing, with Joey Veerman continuing as the central distributor in midfield.
PSV have named largely unchanged sides in recent weeks following a strong domestic run.
PSV expected lineup
(4-2-3-1) Kovar; Sildillia, Schouten, Gasiorowski, Junior; Veerman, Wanner; Perišić, Til, Driouech; Bajraktarević
Newcastle v PSV stats
– Newcastle have won two of their three home Champions League matches this season, keeping clean sheets in both victories.
– Newcastle have been leading for 49% of their total match time in the league phase.
– PSV’s Champions League matches have averaged 4.3 goals this season.
– PSV have conceded the most shots and expected goals from set-pieces in the competition.
– PSV are facing an average of 6.17 shots and 0.80 xG per game from dead-ball situations.
– Newcastle’s centre-backs Botman and Thiaw both average close to one shot per 90 minutes in the Champions League.
Newcastle v PSV predictions
Newcastle’s qualification position means a win would put them firmly on course for the knockout phase, while a draw does little for either side given the congestion around the top 24.
PSV’s approach under Bosz has produced goals but also structural problems when defending set-pieces.
No team in the competition has conceded more shots or higher expected goals from dead-ball situations.
Those struggles make Sven Botman 1+ shot at 8/13 and Malick Thiaw 1+ shot at 1/2 selections worth considering for your bet builder.
Botman has recorded a shot in all three of his home Champions League starts, while Thiaw has managed at least one attempt in three of his five league-phase appearances.
Thiaw to score anytime is also supported by the same data. PSV have already conceded multiple goals to centre-backs in this competition, so back the German to score at 15/2.
Given PSV’s attacking output and Newcastle’s tendency to concede chances in open play, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/11 feels pretty certain.
